Market Minute - Oct. 27, 2017

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Market Minute - Oct. 27, 2017

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CAR Interboard Arbitration

Looking for information on how to file an interboard arbitration complaint? You've come to the right place! Find the rules, timeline and filing documents here.

Code of Ethics Violators

Summaries and photos of California REALTORS® who violated the Code of Ethics and were disciplined with a fine, letter of reprimand, suspension, or expulsion.

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The most recent edition of the Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice of the National Association of REALTORS®.

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Realtor® Secure Transaction is your place to discover, access and master the essential tools for a modern, efficient and secure transaction.

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Explore the implications of the landmark Burnett v NAR antitrust lawsuit's outcome for REALTORS®, the industry, and your business.

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If you're a member looking to resolve a minor dispute or communication issue with another REALTOR^®, a C.A.R. ombudsman may be able to help!

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C.A.R. REALTOR® volunteers are specifically trained and are available to answer questions from other members about the Code of Ethics, and can provide information and limited counseling concerning its proper interpretation.

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The C.A.R. Real Estate Mediation Center for Consumers has mediators available to assist buyers and sellers (as well as other parties to real estate transactions) in resolving their disputes.

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The latest housing market forecast and projection to what lays ahead.

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View the latest sales and price numbers. Find out where sales will be in upcoming months.

Housing Matters Podcast

Your housing hub for market analysis, economic trends, and housing news.

Real Quick

Watch our C.A.R. economists provide updates on the latest housing market data and happenings... quickly!

Market Minute - Oct. 27, 2017

Get a roundup of weekly economic and market news that matters to real estate and your business.

Market Minute Write-Up

Get a roundup of weekly economic and market news that matters to real estate and your business.

Interactive Market Stats

Gain insights through interactive dashboards and downloadable content.

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Speeches & Presentations

Catch up with the latest outreaches and webinars by the Research and Economics team.

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C.A.R. conducts survey research with members and consumers on a regular basis to get a better understanding of the housing market and the real estate industry.

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California Model MLS Rules, Issues Briefing Papers, and other articles and materials related to MLS policy.

Statewide MLS Initiative

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Looking for information on how to file an interboard arbitration complaint? You've come to the right place! Find the rules, timeline and filing documents here.

Code of Ethics Violators

Summaries and photos of California REALTORS® who violated the Code of Ethics and were disciplined with a fine, letter of reprimand, suspension, or expulsion.

NAR Code of Ethics

The most recent edition of the Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice of the National Association of REALTORS®.

Professional Standards Materials

The California Professional Standards Reference Manual, Local Association Forms, NAR materials and other materials related to Code of Ethics enforcement and arbitration.

Resources for Hearings via Zoom Online Training for Professional Standards Volunteers Professional Standards Webinars Statewide Professional Standards Program Professional Standards Administrator Certification Professional Standards Train the Trainer

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C.A.R. postpones release of forms related to business practice changes. READ MORE

Market Minute - Oct. 27, 2017

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Housing/Real Estate Market
California Pending Home Sales Dwindled: September’s decline marks the third consecutive month of losses, suggesting that the housing market will slow as the end of the year winds down. Overall, year-over-year statewide pending home sales dropped 6.0% from 127.7 in September 2016 to 120.0 in September 2017. California pending home sales increased on a monthly basis, rising 2.5% from the August index of 117.0.

U.S. Pending Sales Flat: On an annual basis, there was a drop in pending home sales nationwide in September, suggesting that the pace of growth in closed sales will be lackluster in the coming months. Every major region of the U.S. saw a decline in pending home sales. Although these numbers were impacted by the hurricanes, we also saw fewer pending sales in unaffected regions, which indicates that the supply shortage was the larger culprit last month.

Home Prices Not Only Rising, but Accelerating: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released its home price index for August this week, which showed a 6.6% increase in home prices compared to one year earlier. This represents a faster pace of growth than last year and that home prices have now surpassed the pre-recession peak set nearly a decade ago.

New Home Sales Surprise: Overall, new home sales increased by 18.9% last month after two months of back-to-back declines. The vast majority of this increase was in the South and the Census Bureau warns that this series is notoriously volatile. Still, this does suggest that new home sales are getting back on track as construction has gradually ramped up. At 667,000 (on an annualized basis), new home sales are running at their fastest pace in a decade.

Macro Economy
U.S. Economic Growth Shrugs Off Disasters: Despite hurricanes in Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico, the U.S. economy grew at a 3% pace during the third quarter of 2017. Perhaps more encouraging was that the growth was more broad-based than it has been in several years with consumers contributing less, businesses investing more in both equipment/software and inventory accumulation, and an improving trade balance. Although 3% is just “average” from a historical standpoint, it represents solid growth when compared to the rest of this cycle.

Businesses Finally Getting Into the Mix?: Business investment on capital equipment are showing some signs of life. Core capital goods orders increased by 2.2% in September, extending the winning streak that began in August. Up to this point, the business sector had not been much of a driver of growth. This is encouraging not only because it will generate economic activity over the short run as these orders are filled, but investments in new equipment/capital expands our productive capacity, which will enable more growth in the future as well.

Real Estate Finance
Interest Rates Shoot Up: With the Fed expected to increase rates again in December coupled with inflation that is approaching the 2% target and an economy that has gained some steam, long-term interest rates shot up to their highest level in 3 months. After rising sharply following the presidential election last year, mortgage rates actually subsided during the summer. Last week, it jumped to an average of 3.94%. That is still low by historic standards, but the trend is moving up and rates are expected to continue to climb gradually.

Mortgage Applications Drop as Rates Increase: The number of new mortgage applications declined by 4.6% last week as both refinancing (-3%) and new purchase loans (-6%) declined from the prior week. Despite a gradually healing economy, a lack of housing supply, which has led to deteriorating affordability, continues to hold the market back—particularly in California.

Previous Updates
September 15, 2017 - Home Prices, Consumer Credit, Mortgage Rates
September 1, 2017 - Home Price Index, Job Growth, Mortgage Delinquency
August 25, 2017 - California Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Distressed Mortgages
August 11, 2017 - Affordability, Consumer Inflation, Mortgage Applications
August 4, 2017 - U.S. Pending, Employment, Mortgage Availablity

Market at a Glance

Historical Housing Data

Affordable Inventory