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March 25, 2024 - The Fed delayed lowering the federal funds rate for at least six more weeks, but its latest projection suggested that the central bank still intends to have three rate cuts by the end of the year. Since the announcement, mortgage rates have moderated and should help mortgage application activity bounce back in the upcoming week. Meanwhile, the lack of inventory and the belief of lower rates ahead continued to lift builders’ confidence, as evidenced by a strong rebound in residential construction, a nearly two-year high in building permits, and an almost 10% growth pace in completed projects. As for the economy, the latest report on the labor market suggests that while California’s employment conditions remained solid, the state’s job growth is softening as its unemployment rate in February just exceeded its pre-pandemic average. The Fed decides to hold rates steady but still plans to cut rates three times by end of 2024: At their latest meeting last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. The decision was widely anticipated, after recent economic reports suggested that inflation remained sticky, and the overall economy continued to be solid. The focus of the release was mostly on the Fed’s projections for future rate cuts, which was in line with their previous expectation of three rate cuts for the year 2024. The latest news from the Fed was more encouraging than what the market expected and resulted in an improvement in the bond market, which consequently eased mortgage rates slightly from where they stood prior to the announcement. Mortgage applications pull back: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from a week earlier for the week ending March 15,2024. Mortgage applications remained very sensitive to rate movements, as both purchase and refinance activity came in lower than the prior week after hotter-than-expected inflation pushed mortgage rates up to higher levels. Concerns about the timing and the extent to which the Fed will reduce the fed funds rate this year generated mortgage rate volatility over the last two weeks and explained some of the pullback in mortgage application activity. With the latest FOMC’s announcement, however, mortgage rates could inch down and should help improve mortgage activity in the coming week. Homebuilder sentiment turns positive for the first time since July: U.S. homebuilders reported feeling more confident about their businesses than they have had since last summer, as demand for new housing units continued to rise despite stubbornly high mortgage rates. The National Association of Home Builders/Well Fargo Housing Market Index, which tracks homebuilder sentiment, rose 3 points in March to 51 and was the fourth consecutive monthly gain the index recorded. The sentiment index reached the highest level since July of last year and moved into positive territory (above 50) for the first time since then. Builders are still using sales incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns, but fewer of them are lowering home prices to attract buyers. More builders also believe that as mortgage rates improve, especially in the later part of the year, many more buyers on the sidelines will reenter the market. US residential construction rebounds strongly in February: Boosted by mild temperatures and a persistent shortage of homes on the resale market, housing starts climbed 10.7% month-over-month in February on top of an upward- revised January's figure. It was the highest monthly gain in nine months and marked a strong reversal of the 12.3% month-over-month decline seen in January. The report released last Tuesday by the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, also showed a better outlook for residential construction in the months ahead, as building permits increased 1.9% month-over-month to reach 1.518 million and marked the biggest leap since August. The report continued with more good news as housing completions came in 19.7% higher than the revised January estimate and 9.6% higher compared to one year ago. The sharp increases will continue to provide more options for buyers in the supply constrained market. California’s jobless rate rises above its pre-pandemic average: The labor market in February remained resilient for most states in the U.S., as suggested by the latest report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most states continued to experience solid employment growth last month, but the number of payroll additions is moderating. The number of states with job gains increased to 43 in February from 35 in January. California was one of the seven states with a contraction in employment last month. The decline of 3,400 jobs in payroll growth in the Golden State ended its six-month streak of solid monthly gains. The state's unemployment rate inched up to 5.3% in February from 5.2% in January and has risen above its pre-pandemic average. Construction and trade/transportation were the industries that posted the largest declines in jobs in California last month, and weather could be the primary reason for the loss in employment in February. Note: The weekly market minute report is updated every Monday by 6:00 PM PST.
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